NCAA Tournament Predictions – First Four

Welcome to March Madness, where anything can happen. The NCAA Tournament happens to be my favorite time of the year. For the majority of March and the beginning of April, it’s all about college basketball, including more upsets, tears, toughness, and last-second shots than all of the regular season. As most people do, I fill in my bracket. I found this year’s bracket to be quite difficult compared to past years. COVID-19 has been an issue already for teams, such as Georgia Tech, Virginia, Kansas, and Oklahoma. I’m praying that’s all that it will be. Today marks the first day of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. I will be posting the First Four picks, all regions, and the Final Four picks. So without further ado, here are my First Four picks:

#16 Texas Southern (16-8) vs. #16 Mount St. Mary’s (12-10)

Mount St. Mary’s has a disadvantage in backcourt size. Damian Chong Qui is 5 foot 8, but averages 15.1 points per game (PPG), 4.2 rebounds per game (RPG), and 5.5 assists per game (APG). I like their toughness and rim protection, led by Nana Opuku, averaging 7 rebounds and 2 blocks per game. Texas Southern averages over 74 points per game, but their outside shooting is terrible (27.4%). They also give up more points to their opponents than the Mountaineers. Texas Southern has an experienced roster, led by Michael Weathers, who averaged 18.7 PPG through the SWAC Tournament and had a season-high 30 points in the semifinal overtime win over Jackson State. I think both teams can rebound on offense, but The Mount knows how to defend better, ranked 14th in defending effective FG%. The winner goes to play #1 seed Michigan in the East Region.

My Pick: Mount St. Mary’s

Tune into Texas Southern vs. Mount St. Mary’s at 5:10 PM ET on truTV.


#11 Drake (25-4) vs. #11 Wichita State (16-5)

Wichita State meets Drake for the first time since the Shockers left the Missouri Valley Conference for the American Athletic Conference in 2018. This has a feel-good story for me, as Alterique Gilbert, who transferred to Wichita State from UConn, finally gets to the Big Dance. The Shockers won the AAC Regular Season title after upsetting Houston to take first place earlier that season. Some people will look at the difference in the record and instantly take Drake, but the Bulldogs haven’t played anyone terrific outside Loyola Chicago. Although the American has been weak this year, beating Houston and becoming regular-season champions sounds better. Drake has been without starting point guard Roman Penn and Shanquan Hemphill. Hemphill is expected to play, which is a huge boost for the Bulldogs, who average 81 PPG with him playing. Joseph Yusufu is a beast, averaging 23.1 PPG in the last seven games and winning Sixth Man of the Year in the MVC. Wichita State is led by a tough backcourt duo of Tyson Etienne and Alterique Gilbert. Their new head coach, Isaac Brown, has done an unbelievable job considering the circumstances. Etienne was co-Player of the Year in the AAC and shot a little over 40% from three. The Shockers defense is better, while Drake’s offense is better. If it’s a high-scoring affair, take Drake, but if it’s somewhere in the 50s and 60s, take Wichita State. The winner of this game will go on to play #6 seed USC in the West Region.

My Pick: Wichita State

Tune into Drake vs. Wichita State at 6:27 PM ET on TBS.


#16 Appalachian State (17-11) vs. #16 Norfolk State (16-7)

This play-in game features two teams that haven’t gone dancing in a while. Norfolk State has not been apart of the Selection Show since 2012, while App. State hasn’t made the tournament since 2000. Devante Carter leads Norfolk State in points, assists, and rebounds, and Kashaun Hicks has averaged 10 and 4 in February. Justin Forrest is averaging 16 PPG over the last 18 games. Michael Almonacy won the MEAC Tournament MVP, so the Spartans are coming in with more momentum. The Mountaineers lost six of their last seven games before winning their conference tournament. The winner will play top-seeded Gonzaga in the first round. Defense is key in this game, which favors the MEAC Champions.

My Pick: Norfolk State

Tune into Appalachian State vs. Norfolk State at 8:40 PM ET on truTV.


#11 UCLA (17-9) vs. #11 Michigan State (15-12)

The best of the four play-in games is a late one between the UCLA Bruins and the Michigan State Spartans. Combined, these teams have been to 27 Final Fours. UCLA has 11 National Championships, and Michigan State has two. UCLA has been a better offensive team, ranked 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and averages 72.8 PPG. The Spartans are just above .500 but own wins against Michigan, Ohio State, and Illinois late in the season. Tom Izzo’s team has gotten some momentum, while it’s the opposite for Mick Cronin’s team. The Bruins have lost their last four games and find themselves in the toughest spot possible. If UCLA wants to start winning, they have to rely on Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez, and Tyger Campbell at the 1. It’s a bummer that UCLA was without Chris Smith this season, who would have given the Bruins more strength. I’m worried about Michigan State’s consistency, as they have lost 12 and multiple of those losses were by 30. I’m excited to watch this team, containing Aaron Henry, Joshua Langford, Rocket Watts. If Watts can get in double figures, I like MSU’s chances. I also want to see more out of Marquette transfer Joey Hauser, who had 11 against arch-rival Michigan. If Hauser can shoot like his brother Sam during the NCAA Tournament, it makes this team even scarier to think about. It’s not about consistency because neither team has that, but it’s about who’s better offensively and the momentum coming into this game. I like the talent, offense, and momentum of the Spartans, but UCLA plays a more efficient offense. The winner will go on to play #6 seed BYU in the East region.

My Pick: Michigan State

Tune into UCLA at Michigan State at 9:57 PM ET on TBS.

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